How does success in 7-on-7 translate when the real season arrives?
The 2014 Summer Edition
is now available!
The 2014 Summer Edition of Dave Campbell's Texas Football — the 55th annual edition of "the bible of Texas Football" — is available now! Here's what you need to know:
SUBSCRIBE: Are you a true Texas football fan? Become a DCTF Legends Member or a DCTF Champions Member! Not only will you get all of our magazines early — a week before they hit shelves — but you'll also get the exclusive content from DCTF, including 10 digital editions throughout the year!
ORDER NOW: Are you ready for some football? You can order your copy of the 2014 Summer Edition of Dave Campbell's Texas Football right now in the DCTF Store! Then, it'll get sent straight to you!
The dust has settled in College Station for another year. No, not that dust — the Aggies haven’t even gotten started in 2014. But for the State 7-on-7 Tournament, it’s all over but the singing.
And, of course, the analysis, which is where we come in.
The 2014 State 7-on-7 Tournament — which pits the finest 7-man teams from across the state against one another in what is essentially a passing league — has come to a close, and the champions have been crowned. This year, it was Katy Seven Lakes who took home the Division I crown (which is comprised of 6A and 5A teams) and Graham who repeated as Division II champions (containing 4A, 3A, 2A, 1A and private school teams).
But as fun as 7-on-7 football is — it’s a welcome oasis of football in the vast desert wasteland of the offseason — the real question that everyone has is: what does it mean?
Of course, it means that Katy Seven Lakes and Graham are very good at 7-on-7 football. But is their success in the passing league a harbinger of things to come in the fall, when 11 men will suit up instead of seven?
While we don’t have a firm answer — we’re good at predictions at Dave Campbell’s Texas Football, but even we can’t predict the future — we can look back at the historical data to draw a few conclusions.
We looked at the 46 teams that have played in a 7-on-7 state championship game dating back to the tournament’s inception in 1998. It should be noted that prior to 2007, there was no divisional split; everyone played everyone.
We wanted to know: how did teams that played for a 7-on-7 title do that season? The answer: pretty darn well, though there are no guarantees.
Here are the playoff finishes for the 46 teams that played for a 7-on-7 title:
Overall, the numbers suggest at least a decent correlation between 7-on-7 success and 11-man success. In sum, 37 of the 46 7-on-7 finalists made the playoffs that season, with more than 30% of them (14 of the 46) making the state semifinals.
Seven teams have turned that 7-on-7 success into an 11-man title, most recently Argyle, who was the runner-up in last year’s DII 7-on-7 tournament before winning the 3A Division II state title. What’s also interesting: the seven state champions are pretty evenly split as far as 7-on-7 champions and runners-up (4 teams won both the 7-on-7 and 11-man titles, while 3 finished second in 7-on-7 before winning a title).
When you dive into the records, it gets even more promising for the 7-on-7 standouts.
Check that out: 31 of the 46 finalists in 7-on-7 won at least nine games that season. That’s pretty good odds.
There are, of course, outliers. Cy-Fair in 2009 is perhaps the most extreme case — after being edged out in the Division I 7-on-7 title game, the Bobcats went an astonishing 0-10.
And that speaks to an important distinction to draw: 7-on-7 football simply plays into some teams’ strengths more than others. There’s a reason that teams like Southlake Carroll, DeSoto and Celina are always in the hunt for a 7-on-7 crown: their offensive schemes are perfectly suited for the 7-on-7 game. There’s also a reason that teams like Corpus Christi Calallen (one appearance in the state tournament), Fairfield (zero appearances) and Cibolo Steele (no appearances) can’t find a foothold despite their success in the 11-man game: it just doesn’t fit what they’re trying to do.
That said, there is sufficient data to suggest that success in 7-on-7 football usually translates to success in 11-man.
Here’s the complete data for the all-time 7-on-7 finalists.
|Year||7-on-7 Finish||Team||Season Finish|
|2014||DI Champion||Katy Seven Lakes||???|
|2014||DII Runner-up||Plano Prestonwood||???|
|2013||DI Champion||Southlake Carroll||11-2, regional semifinalist|
|2013||DI Runner-up||Houston Stratford||12-3, state semifinalist|
|2013||DII Champion||Graham||14-1, state semifinalist|
|2013||DII Runner-up||Argyle||16-0, state champion|
|2012||DI Champion||Plano||5-6, bi-district finalist|
|2012||DI Runner-up||Manvel||11-2, regional semifinalist|
|2012||DII Champion||Celina||10-3, regional semifinalist|
|2012||DII Runner-up||Graham||13-2, state semifinalist|
|2011||DI Champion||DeSoto||10-2, area finalist|
|2011||DI Runner-up||Houston Lamar||10-3, regional semifinalist|
|2011||DII Champion||Melissa||13-1, state champion|
|2011||DII Runner-up||Houston Kinkaid||10-0, state champion|
|2010||DI Champion||Lake Travis||14-2, state champion|
|2010||DI Runner-up||DeSoto||11-3, regional finalist|
|2010||DII Champion||Brownwood||14-1, state semifinalist|
|2010||DII Runner-up||Cameron Yoe||14-1, state finalist|
|2009||DI Champion||Round Rock Stony Point||13-2, state semifinalist|
|2009||DI Runner-up||Cy-Fair||0-10, no playoffs|
|2009||DII Champion||Celina||7-5, area finalist|
|2009||DII Runner-up||Rice Consolidated||11-2, regional semifinalist|
|2008||DI Champion||Richland||9-2, bi-district finalist|
|2008||DI Runner-up||Mesquite||5-5, no playoffs|
|2008||DII Champion||Crane||8-3, bi-district finalist|
|2008||DII Runner-up||Navasota||10-1, regional semifinalist|
|2007||DI Champion||Georgetown||6-4, no playoffs|
|2007||DI Runner-up||Houston Stratford||9-4, regional semifinalist|
|2007||DII Champion||Celina||16-0, state champion|
|2007||DII Runner-up||Crane||9-2, bi-district finalist|
|2006||Champion||Colleyville Heritage||10-4, regional finalist|
|2006||Runner-up||Rockwall||8-3, bi-district finalist|
|2005||Champion||Baytown Lee||1-7, no playoffs|
|2005||Runner-up||Bay City||5-6, bi-district finalist|
|2004||Champion||Tyler Lee||2-8, no playoffs|
|2004||Runner-up||Katy Taylor||6-4, no playoffs|
|2003||Champion||Odessa Permian||6-4, no playoffs|
|2003||Runner-up||Burnet||14-1, state finalist|
|2002||Champion||Katy Cinco Ranch||6-4, no playoffs|
|2002||Runner-up||Abilene||10-2, area finalist|
|2001||Champion||Baytown Lee||10-2, area finalist|
|2001||Runner-up||Austin Bowie||2-8, no playoffs|
|2000||Champion||Celina||16-0, state champion|
|2000||Runner-up||Abilene Cooper||10-4, regional finalist|
|1999||Champion||North Mesquite||7-4, bi-distirct finalist|
|1999||Runner-up||Lake Worth||9-3, bi-district finalist|
|1998||Champion||Southlake Carroll||12-2, regional finalist|
|1998||Runner-up||Grapevine||10-4, state champion|
Greg Tepper is the managing editor of Dave Campbell's Texas Football and TexasFootball.com.
If you would like to report inappropriate behavior within the Facebook commenting system, please email email@example.com and we will review your request.